Avocado harvesting has resumed in Michoacán following the recent industry disruption. Demand continues to significantly exceed available supply, keeping the market tight and limiting the industry’s ability to quickly rebuild inventories.

Supply

• Michoacán harvesting has restarted, but harvest opportunities remain limited and logistical restrictions continue to slow the recovery
• Jalisco has helped support Mexican supply levels during the disruption
• Replenishing U.S. inventories will take time, as fruit typically requires approximately 3 to 4 days from harvest to reach U.S. border facilities, followed by additional distribution and conditioning time

Pricing

• Pricing is expected to remain significantly elevated in the near term as supply continues to trail demand and inventories remain constrained
• A meaningful market correction will depend on sustained harvesting activity and the rebuilding of U.S. inventories

Markon Recommendation/Outlook

• Expect continued tight availability and elevated pricing in the near term, despite the restart of harvesting in Michoacán
• Markon recommends remaining flexible on sizing and specifications and placing orders as far in advance as possible, particularly for ripened fruit, while the supply pipeline rebuilds
• Supply conditions should improve as sustained Mexican harvest volumes move through the pipeline, but recovery will not be immediate

Please contact your Markon Account Manager for more information.

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