Disruptions to harvesting activity in Michoacán, Mexico over the past two weeks have significantly tightened U.S. avocado supplies and driven markets higher. While industry leaders and grower groups have reached an agreement that could allow harvesting to resume on November 5, the restart remains subject to confirmation and the level of grower participation is still unknown. Inventories have declined steadily throughout the disruption, and supply chains will require time to recover even after harvesting resumes.
Supply
- Harvesting in Michoacán has remained largely suspended since late October, while Jalisco has continued harvesting at reduced volumes that are insufficient to offset lost production
- According to APEAM, harvesting is expected to resume on Thursday, November 5, although actual harvested yields and participation levels remain uncertain
- Even after harvesting resumes, several days will be required for product to move through harvesting, packing, transportation, ripening, and distribution channels before supplies begin to recover
Pricing
- Markets remain elevated due to declining inventories, limited harvest activity, and significantly higher field prices in Mexico
- Industry field costs increased approximately 71.5% during the disruption period
- Pricing is expected to remain firm in the near term, even if harvesting resumes, as supply pipelines will take time to rebuild
- Any meaningful market correction will depend on sustained harvest volumes and inventory recovery
Markon Recommendation
- Maintaining flexibility is suggested on avocado sizing and specifications
- Members should place orders as far in advance as possible, particularly for ripened fruit programs, as supply remains constrained and inventories are well below normal levels
- Expect continued supply pressure and elevated pricing until harvesting activity normalizes and inventories throughout the supply chain are replenished
Please contact your Markon Account Manager for more information.
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