The avocado market remains on alert amid continued harvest disruptions in Michoacán, Mexico. Limited harvesting may resume October 30, though no official announcement has been made. With California and Peru essentially finished for the season, U.S. supply is largely dependent on Mexico. Any delays in Mexico’s harvest recovery could further tighten availability.

Supply

• Harvesting remains suspended or severely limited in Michoacán, while Jalisco continues to harvest
• Although Jalisco volumes provide some support, they are not sufficient to replace Michoacán’s typical production levels
• Harvesting is not expected on October 31, and additional interruptions are possible on November 2 due to Día de los Muertos observances
• Even when harvesting fully resumes, inventories will require time to recover as fruit moves through harvesting, packing, transportation, ripening, and distribution channels

Quality

• Quality remains generally good on available Mexican fruit
• No significant quality concerns have been reported, and industry focus remains centered on supply availability and inventory replenishment

Pricing

• Markets are expected to remain firm as uncertainty surrounding Mexican harvest activity continues
• The duration of disruptions in Michoacán will be the primary driver of pricing direction
• Prolonged harvest interruptions would likely result in tighter availability and additional upward pricing pressure across all major sizes

Markon Recommendation

• Expect continued market volatility over the next 7-10 days as harvesting conditions develop in Mexico
• Buyers should communicate needs as early as possible and remain flexible on sizing and regional sourcing opportunities
• Supply recovery will not be immediate once harvesting resumes due to the time required to replenish inventories throughout the supply chain

Please contact your Markon Account Manager for more information.

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